Cairo & Mogadishu — A once-quiet diplomatic partnership between Egypt and Somalia is showing signs of unraveling, as sources familiar with Egyptian-Somali relations confirm that Cairo has suspended a key military cooperation agreement with Mogadishu, citing distrust and frustration over Somalia’s recent foreign policy pivot toward Ethiopia.
The military accord, signed in August 2024, had laid the groundwork for deploying more than 1,000 Egyptian special forces to Somalia to support counterterrorism operations against Al-Shabaab. According to high-level sources, that plan is now “effectively frozen,” marking a sharp turn in a relationship long characterized by shared strategic concerns — particularly regarding Ethiopia’s influence and the ongoing tensions surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
A Strategic Shift Alarms Cairo
At the heart of the dispute is what Egyptian officials view as a “180-degree shift” in Somalia’s regional alignment. Under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Somalia has recently accelerated its rapprochement with Ethiopia, holding a series of intelligence and diplomatic meetings that have alarmed Cairo.
“This is not just a policy change — it’s a reversal,” said one source familiar with the situation. “It undermines years of Egyptian investment in Somalia’s security and political leadership.”
Cairo sees Somalia’s sudden pivot as a betrayal of a tacit strategic understanding that aligned both countries against perceived Ethiopian regional ambitions. Somalia’s move is seen as particularly troubling amid rising instability in the Horn of Africa.
Egypt’s Response
In addition to freezing the military agreement, Egyptian intelligence has reportedly reclassified Somalia as a “high-risk” partner. Officials in Cairo are said to be deeply disappointed by what they describe as the Somali president’s “unpredictable” behavior and failure to consult allies prior to engaging with Addis Ababa.
“This isn’t about one agreement,” one Egyptian official said. “It’s about trust, regional balance, and long-term strategic vision.”
Regional Repercussions
The fallout is drawing in other powers with vested interests in the Horn of Africa. Turkey’s recent troop deployment to Mogadishu has added complexity to the already tense environment. Meanwhile, Eritrea has expressed concern over what it calls Somalia’s “hasty and poorly considered” realignment.
Observers note that these developments could reshape alliances in a region already strained by competition over security, influence, and access to Red Sea trade routes.
What Lies Ahead?
While there are no official declarations of a break in diplomatic ties, the undercurrents suggest that Egypt and Somalia are heading in opposite directions — politically, strategically, and militarily.
Telegaraf News
